SL
SILICON LABORATORIES INC. (SLAB)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Setup into Q1 2026 is favorable: two consecutive quarters of revenue growth (Q2: $192.8M; Q3: $206.0M) and accelerating margin expansion, with Q4 gross margin guided to 62–64% and non-GAAP EPS to $0.40–$0.70, positioning for Q1 2026 consensus of ~$213.2M revenue and ~$0.49 EPS .*
- Q3 delivered modest beats vs consensus on revenue and non-GAAP EPS; management signaled a non-recurring ~200 bps gross margin credit in Q4 and a normalized gross margin near ~61% thereafter .
- Demand drivers remain intact: CGM ramp still tracking to ~10% of revenue in 1H 2026, smart meters (India, Japan) and distribution mix (74%) supporting margins; Series 3 rollout complements ongoing Series 2 strength .
- Near-term catalyst is profitability: Q4 margin step-up (including a one-time credit) and tighter OpEx suggest continued EPS acceleration; watch for confirmation of CGM contribution and asset-tracking wins into 2026 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Sequential and year-over-year growth in sales and profitability” with Q3 revenue $206M and non-GAAP EPS $0.32, driven by distribution mix and industrial strength .
- Strategic execution: expanded GlobalFoundries partnership to add U.S. capacity for Series 2 and launched AI-augmented Simplicity Platform and SDK to accelerate IoT development .
- Visibility into durable drivers: “full-year revenue growth of 34%” expected in 2025, CGM ramp path to 10% of revenue in 1H 2026, and asset tracking emerging as a future growth category .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP profitability remains negative in Q3 (operating loss: $12M; diluted loss per share: $(0.30)), despite improving non-GAAP metrics .
- One-time gross margin credit (~200 bps) lifts Q4 margin but is non-recurring; normalized GM expected ~60–61% before trending back toward long-term 56–58% range over time .
- Visibility constraints: turns within lead time limit backlog clarity; tariff/macro uncertainty persists even though end-customer inventories continue to trend lower .
Financial Results
- Consensus vs actuals (beats/misses): Q2 revenue $192.845M vs $192.631M estimate (+$0.214M); EPS $0.11 vs $0.093 (+$0.017) .* Q3 revenue $205.999M vs $205.299M estimate (+$0.700M); EPS $0.32 vs $0.307 (+$0.013) .* Q4 guidance midpoints broadly align or slightly exceed consensus (GM midpoint ~63% vs 63.0%; non-GAAP EPS midpoint ~$0.55 vs $0.53) .*
Segment revenue breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Notes: Management flagged a one-time gross margin credit of ~200 bps in Q4; normalized GM ~61% excluding the credit .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We expect full-year revenue growth of 34% compared to 2024…with many customers at various stages of qualification and new production ramps leading into 2026 and beyond.”
- “The rapid rise of artificial intelligence is driving new growth in energy demand…As the global leader in smart metering, we are well-positioned to benefit from this trend.”
- “Simplicity AI SDK…agentic AI…streamlines steps, accelerates time…lowers the bar…should result in scalability and more efficiency in terms of acquiring customers’ designs.”
- “Series 2…ultra successful…de facto standard…Series 3…will be even more impactful…software compatible…largest opportunity funnel…on track to record design wins.”
- “We expanded our partnership with GlobalFoundries…add needed U.S. capacity…for the next decade and beyond.”
Q&A Highlights
- Gross margin: Q4 guide includes a one-time ~200 bps credit; normalized GM ~61%, expected to hold for “next few quarters” before gradually reverting toward 56–58% long-term range .
- Distribution/channel: Targeting 70–75 days; moved ~10 days in Q3 (5 days organic + ~5 days strategic stocking), POS strong; plan to add ~5 days per quarter, lumpy .
- CGM: Still expect path to ~10% of revenue by 1H 2026; multiple customers ramping .
- Asset tracking: Emerging as a potential growth driver; BLE channel sounding central to use cases .
- M&A/Capital: Tight filter; more likely to route excess cash flow to buybacks given strong organic growth and improving profitability .
- Wi‑Fi: 30–40% YoY growth in 2025; Series 3 to enhance Wi‑Fi portfolio; remains smallest tech pillar but growing quickly .
Estimates Context
- Recent beats: Q2 revenue $192.845M vs $192.631M estimate; EPS $0.11 vs $0.093; Q3 revenue $205.999M vs $205.299M; EPS $0.32 vs $0.307 .*
- Q4 2025 guidance midpoints broadly align to or modestly exceed consensus (GM ~63% vs 63.0%; EPS midpoint ~$0.55 vs $0.53), implying a potential beat if mix and distribution contributions persist .*
- Q1 2026 consensus: revenue ~$213.163M, EPS ~$0.4947, gross margin ~61%; trajectory consistent with normalized margin framework post Q4 credit .*
Estimates table (consensus)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term trading setup favors profitability: Q4 margin step-up (with a one-time credit) and higher non-GAAP EPS range suggest continued earnings momentum; watch for confirmation of normalized GM near ~61% into Q1 2026 .
- Distribution mix and industrial strength are lifting margins; further channel refill (toward 70–75 days) is a tailwind to gross margin and POS, albeit lumpy .
- CGM remains the most visible 2026 growth catalyst with management reaffirming a path to ~10% revenue in 1H 2026; evidence of multiple customers ramping supports durability .
- Series 3 plus continued Series 2 share gains expand the design win funnel; platform compatibility should accelerate time-to-revenue in future ramps .
- Asset tracking and Wi‑Fi are emerging contributors; BLE channel sounding and battery-powered Wi‑Fi wins (e.g., Roku camera) broaden the growth footprint .
- Macro risks (tariffs, geopolitics) are monitored; modeled impact appears modest and likely pass-through; end-customer inventories are at cycle lows—a healthy demand indicator .
- Action: In the short term, position for margin/EPS upside against consensus into Q4–Q1; in the medium term, lean into CGM/metering/Series 3 narratives and monitor asset-tracking design conversions to revenue.
References:
- Q3 2025 8‑K and press release: financials, segment metrics, guidance .
- Q3 2025 earnings call: prepared remarks and Q&A themes .
- Q2 2025 8‑K and press release: financials, segment metrics, guidance .
- S&P Global consensus estimates (revenue, EPS, gross margin) for Q2–Q1 [GetEstimates].*